The employment and unemployment numbers came out today. Unemployment inched downward to 10% and almost eked out a positive employment figure with a loss of 11,000 jobs. These numbers are highly optimistic. Although preliminary, it is a stark contrast from the consensus estimates of -116,000 and IHS Global Insight’s glum prediction of -175,000. This may signify an early turning point in economic recovery. Just look how close those payrolls almost reach 0.
I would expect the preliminary numbers to be revised downward, and that employment growth will stagnate over the holiday season as employers take a breather from either hiring or firing. I think we will be able to have positive employment growth well into early 2010, say, for the month of January?