So close…November’s employment figures

The employment and unemployment numbers came out today.  Unemployment inched downward to 10% and almost eked out a positive employment figure with a loss of 11,000 jobs.   These numbers are highly optimistic.  Although preliminary, it is a stark contrast from the consensus estimates of -116,000 and IHS Global Insight’s glum prediction of -175,000.  This may signify an early turning point in economic recovery.  Just look how close those payrolls almost reach 0.

I would expect the preliminary numbers to be revised downward, and that employment growth will stagnate over the holiday season as employers take a breather from either hiring or firing. I think we will be able to have positive employment growth well into early 2010, say, for the month of January?


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